Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:26:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D6 0xd6f4…ecf1 weather 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$124 (-1%) realized −$124 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%122W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$3
weather 30% −$123
other 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 17 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 65 -0.7% -10.1% 98% 0% -11.1%
all 127 -1.1% -10.5% 96% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -10.3%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$31 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses122 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage139d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $72 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? Jun 22 $72 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 17? Jun 17 $72 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 15? Jun 15 $72 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $72 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 5°C or below on June 10? Jun 11 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $71 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C or below on June 1? Jun 02 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 30? May 30 $71 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 29? May 30 $71 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 27? May 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 27? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on May 27? May 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 24? May 24 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 24? May 23 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on May 17? May 17 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on May 14? May 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 13? May 13 $57 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 11? May 11 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 10? May 10 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on May 10? May 10 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 15°C on May 9? May 08 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 8? May 08 $65 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 3? May 03 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 1? May 01 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on April 29? Apr 29 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 28? Apr 29 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on April 27 Apr 27 $65 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 27? Apr 27 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 26? Apr 26 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 26? Apr 26 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 23? Apr 25 $61 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 20? Apr 20 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 19? Apr 19 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 17? Apr 18 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 16? Apr 16 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 15? Apr 15 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on April 13? Apr 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 12? Apr 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 11 Apr 12 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 11? Apr 11 $137 −$92 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 10? Apr 10 $151 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on April 8? Apr 09 $151 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $72 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $72 40h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $72 9d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $72 11d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $72 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $12 13d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $60 13d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $72 15d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 5°C or below on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $72 18d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $71 18d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $71 19d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $71 20d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $71 22d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $71 23d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $71 24d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C or below on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $71 27d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $71 27d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $71 30d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $21 30d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $31 30d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $19 30d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 33d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $70 34d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $70 42d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 43d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 13? BUY No 99¢ $57 45d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $70 46d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $70 47d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $69 49d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 15°C on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $69 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.44 · official $72.44 (match) · 265 history records