Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:53:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6f3…3b59 other 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$393 (-6%) realized −$329 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate68%38W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$508now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days−$195
14 days−$330
30 days−$414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$78
crypto 12% −$348
sports 8% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -10.2% -18.7% 59% 56% -15.0%
≤30d 56 -5.0% -14.1% 68% 59% -16.2%
≤90d 56 -5.0% -14.1% 68% 59% -16.2%
all 56 -5.0% -14.1% 68% 59% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 59% -16.2%
10% -22.3% 45% -24.2%
15% -29.8% 30% -31.5%
20% -36.7% 18% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$96 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$508
Realized−$329
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses38 / 18
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions7
Markets (closed)56 / 65
History coverage18d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $194 $153 −$41 (-21%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 83¢ 82¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $87 $95 +$7 (+8%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $48 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 72¢ 70¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 28¢ $49 $20 −$28 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 +$18 +37%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $49 +$21 +43%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 +$53 +108%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $99 +$46 +47%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $49 +$17 +35%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 −$49 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $49 −$49 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $248 −$246 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $49 +$13 +27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $25 +$17 +70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $49 +$14 +28%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $988 +$313 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $49 +$28 +56%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$49 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $49 +$62 +128%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $248 +$20 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $98 +$106 +108%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $147 −$145 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $245 −$240 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $198 −$196 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $25 −$24 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $49 +$20 +41%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $247 +$101 +41%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $50 +$8 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $99 +$24 +24%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $50 +$10 +19%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $50 +$20 +41%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $50 +$10 +21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $50 +$17 +33%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $50 +$6 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $99 +$53 +54%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $49 +$33 +67%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $250 +$23 +9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $50 +$14 +28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $250 −$248 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $99 −$98 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 03 $99 +$61 +61%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $99 −$98 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $49 −$48 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $100 +$13 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $49 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 72¢ $49 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $49 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $99 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $49 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $49 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $49 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $49 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 55¢ $51 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $99 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $49 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $49 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $49 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $248 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 78¢ $49 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $49 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND W BUY 47¢ $51 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $988 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $25 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $49 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $147 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $245 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $49 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $49 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 92¢ $248 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $198 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $98 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 19¢ $24 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $508.30 · official $558.52 · 122 history records