Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D6 0xd6f1…dd82 sports 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$915 (-6%) realized −$926 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate54%52W / 45L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$32
14 days+$176
30 days+$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$1,163
sports 10% +$238
other 3% −$49
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -4.6% -13.7% 47% 39% -7.6%
≤30d 82 +1.2% -8.4% 51% 43% +0.3%
≤90d 91 +1.7% -8.0% 54% 41% -11.2%
all 97 +1.6% -8.1% 54% 40% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 40% -15.8%
10% -16.9% 36% -23.9%
15% -24.9% 31% -31.3%
20% -32.3% 26% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$47 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$926
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses52 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 100
History coverage610d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 65¢ 100¢ $21 $32 +$11 (+54%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 39¢ 32¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $11 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $78 −$12 -15%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $35 +$19 +54%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $1 $0 +10%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $21 −$21 -99%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $27 −$24 -86%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$15 +73%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 19 $10 +$5 +54%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $21 +$18 +86%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $90 +$29 +33%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $7 +$2 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $8 +$2 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $30 +$17 +56%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $61 +$29 +48%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $17 −$17 -99%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $36 +$27 +75%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $15 +$23 +148%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $48 +$20 +42%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $29 −$29 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$17 +165%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$3 +27%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $13 +$16 +119%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$2 +7%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $58 +$43 +74%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $20 +$16 +79%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $10 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $21 −$21 -99%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $23 −$23 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $58 −$57 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $23 +$40 +172%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $33 +$40 +123%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Play Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $53 +$45 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $1 6m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $3 7m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 58m
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $1 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 58¢ $66 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 49¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 63¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 58¢ $3 4h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $6 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $5 4h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $30 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $11 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 35¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 79¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 47¢ $5 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 50¢ $3 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 48¢ $7 7h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL INOX Division 30¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 35¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $5 9h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 91¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 60¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 60¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $10 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.58 · official $82.08 · 759 history records