Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D6 0xd6f1…49f4 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$106 (-22%) realized −$105 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -10.3% -18.8% 60% 60% -33.1%
≤30d 5 -10.3% -18.8% 60% 60% -33.1%
≤90d 5 -10.3% -18.8% 60% 60% -33.1%
all 5 -10.3% -18.8% 60% 60% -33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 60% -33.1%
10% -26.6% 60% -39.5%
15% -33.7% 40% -45.4%
20% -40.2% 20% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$102 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$105
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $25 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$8 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $129 +$58 +44%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $83 +$26 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $27 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $142 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $23 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $8 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $98 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $62 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $83 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.95 · official $50.95 (match) · 14 history records