Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:33:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6ed…c8ea crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (115 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$210 (-7%) realized −$210 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate59%23W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day115.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$481
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (115 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -19.7% -27.4% 59% 31% -22.7%
≤30d 39 -19.7% -27.4% 59% 31% -22.7%
≤90d 39 -19.7% -27.4% 59% 31% -22.7%
all 39 -19.7% -27.4% 59% 31% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.4% 31% -22.7%
10% ← realistic here -34.3% 15% -30.1%
15% -40.7% 8% -36.9%
20% -46.5% 5% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$44 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$210
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses23 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage1d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day115.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $257 −$245 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $251 +$14 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $404 +$30 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $201 +$17 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$20 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $60 −$39 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $55 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $36 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $255 −$13 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $63 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $221 +$23 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $242 +$25 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 26 $213 +$20 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $22 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $36 −$14 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $36 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $257 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $251 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $201 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $225 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $203 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $201 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $32 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.37 · official $14.06 · 170 history records