Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:53:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6e8…fae8 other 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 349d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$219 (-5%) realized −$219 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate39%46W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$339
7 days−$64
14 days−$169
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$210
crypto 7% +$41
world 5% −$15
sports 3% −$44
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -14.1% -22.3% 52% 44% -11.2%
≤30d 84 -14.8% -22.9% 51% 43% -13.3%
≤90d 84 -14.8% -22.9% 51% 43% -13.3%
all 119 -29.2% -35.9% 39% 32% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.9% 32% -14.9%
10% -42.0% 20% -23.0%
15% -47.6% 17% -30.5%
20% -52.8% 9% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

349d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$219
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses46 / 73
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage349d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $38 +$5 +13%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $27 +$11 +40%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $18 +$8 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $173 −$172 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 −$3 -2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $212 −$210 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$23 +11%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $6 −$3 -55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $404 +$148 +37%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $176 +$54 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$3 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +18%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $830 +$25 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $106 +$30 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$14 -28%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 +$15 +19%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 −$14 -27%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $79 −$6 -8%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$8 +15%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -96%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $43 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $38 3h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 71¢ $27 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $18 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $173 33h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 89¢ $197 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $201 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $212 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $223 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 39h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $552 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $404 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $230 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 75¢ $176 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 301 history records