Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D6 0xd6e4…68be crypto 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$356 (-9%) realized −$326 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%43W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days−$622
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$588
sports 40% −$449
other 3% +$386
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +7.1% -3.1% 40% 40% -0.5%
≤30d 126 -17.9% -25.7% 34% 33% -25.1%
≤90d 126 -17.9% -25.7% 34% 33% -25.1%
all 126 -17.9% -25.7% 34% 33% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 33% -25.1%
10% -32.8% 26% -32.3%
15% -39.3% 25% -38.8%
20% -45.3% 22% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$26 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$326
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses43 / 83
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)126 / 128
History coverage21d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Zizou Bergs Daniel Altmaier 39¢ 38¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse Ignacio Buse 17¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 24 $24 −$23 -96%
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro Jun 24 $18 +$37 +200%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 24 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $45 +$20 +44%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$19 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 05 $25 −$24 -96%
Makarska: Noma Noha Akugue vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Jun 05 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 05 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 05 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +13%
Foggia: Giorgia Pedone vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 05 $20 −$19 -97%
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling Jun 05 $30 +$83 +277%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 05 $25 +$27 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$20 +393%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 05 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$13 +131%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Marvin Moeller Jun 05 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $25 −$12 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 05 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 05 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 05 $50 −$1 -2%
Prostejov: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Lautaro Midon Jun 05 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 05 $30 −$29 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $217 −$210 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 05 $7 +$6 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +91%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 05 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 05 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 05 $25 +$12 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 05 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 05 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 05 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 05 $35 −$9 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 05 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 05 $50 +$41 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 05 $50 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 05 $36 −$34 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $106 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 05 $50 +$38 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 17¢ $31 46m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 13¢ $24 1h
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro SELL Niels McDonald 100¢ $55 1h
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro BUY Niels McDonald 32¢ $18 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Jenson Brooksby SELL Jenson Brooksby 34¢ $18 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Jenson Brooksby BUY Jenson Brooksby 35¢ $20 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Zizou Bergs BUY Daniel Altmaier 39¢ $15 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $45 14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $20 15h
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 20¢ $21 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $25 18d
Makarska: Noma Noha Akugue vs Sara Sorribes Tormo BUY Noma Noha Akugue 19¢ $20 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $25 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 18d
Foggia: Giorgia Pedone vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Giorgia Pedone 20¢ $20 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 18d
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling SELL Karl Poling 89¢ $113 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $12 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $25 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 18d
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling BUY Karl Poling 23¢ $30 18d
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Marvin Moeller BUY Marvin Moeller 41¢ $30 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $13 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $25 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.48 · official $14.48 (match) · 255 history records