Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:19:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd6e2…7d4f
weather · 119 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$254 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$289 · open −$64
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$224
Realized+$289
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses32 / 64
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions23
Markets (closed)96 / 119
History coverage6d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day99.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 23 History 96 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days+$289
14 days+$289
30 days+$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 24¢ 44¢ $40 $73 +$33 (+84%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $26 $33 +$7 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $18 $26 +$8 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $10 −$6 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $18 $7 −$11 (-61%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Yes 16¢ 82¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+416%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 16? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$30 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 14? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 14? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $97 +$159 +164%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $45 +$114 +254%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$98 +195%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$62 +320%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $29 −$9 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $70 −$51 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $17 −$11 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $76 −$61 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$36 +636%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $53 −$9 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 +$8 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$7 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$22 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% +$219
sports 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 48m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 51m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 55m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 55m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 58m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 59m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -1.5% -10.9% 33% 30% +6.1%
≤30d 96 -1.5% -10.9% 33% 30% +6.1%
≤90d 96 -1.5% -10.9% 33% 30% +6.1%
all 96 -1.5% -10.9% 33% 30% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover99.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 30% +6.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 27% -4.0%
15% -27.2% 26% -13.3%
20% -34.3% 23% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.63 · official $235.14 · 667 history records