Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:30:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D6 0xd6e1…35ed sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$55 (+1%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$64
14 days+$64
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$5
other 8% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +8.4% -1.9% 100% 50% -1.7%
≤30d 5 -4.0% -13.2% 60% 40% -6.3%
≤90d 16 +22.2% +10.5% 56% 44% -8.6%
all 16 +22.2% +10.5% 56% 44% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.5% 44% -8.6%
10% -0.0% 38% -17.4%
15% -9.7% 38% -25.4%
20% -18.6% 31% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$91 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage100d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 26 $405 +$43 +11%
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Jun 26 $334 +$20 +6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $119 −$102 -85%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $119 +$177 +148%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $56 +$93 +166%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $53 +$87 +163%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $125 +$134 +108%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 02 $1,164 −$125 -11%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 24 $68 −$25 -37%
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 20 Apr 21 $504 −$99 -20%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 21 $580 +$17 +3%
NBA to pass Luka Doncic’s “Extraordinary Circumstances Challenge”? Apr 18 $71 +$29 +41%
NBA Playoffs: Rockets vs. Lakers Total Games O/U 5.5 Apr 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 13 $103 +$81 +79%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 29 $1,000 −$177 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $448 1h
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? SELL No 89¢ $354 1h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 6¢ $17 26d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 59¢ $55 26d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 59¢ $7 26d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 59¢ $2 26d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 59¢ $3 26d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 59¢ $6 26d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 59¢ $23 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 39¢ $119 26d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 41¢ $25 36d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 41¢ $175 36d
76ers vs. Celtics SELL 76ers 50¢ $49 54d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 77¢ $2 55d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 77¢ $11 55d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 77¢ $12 55d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 77¢ $28 55d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 77¢ $13 55d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 77¢ $2 55d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 77¢ $1 55d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 77¢ $2 55d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 77¢ $39 55d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 77¢ $13 55d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 77¢ $32 55d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 38¢ $53 55d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY 76ers 28¢ $56 55d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets SELL Lakers 73¢ $109 55d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 60d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records