Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:23:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6e0…c02f world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 28L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$4
other 23% $0
politics 19% −$1
sports 6% $0
culture 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 15 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 15 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.0%
all 41 -0.4% -9.9% 32% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.4% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage318d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $48 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $16 −$3 -18%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $64 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $65 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $109 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $57 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $3 $0 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $45 +$4 +10%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $41 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $45 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $41 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 09 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 08 $14 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 13 $3 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $1 $0 -14%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Aug 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025? Aug 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 12 $108 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 11 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 425–439 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? Aug 11 $49 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 10 $61 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 08 $6 $0 +0%
Pakistan strike on India by Friday? Aug 07 $8 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 07 $67 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 06 $76 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $41 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $49 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $48 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $7 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $43 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $16 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $21 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $21 47h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $15 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $20 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $20 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $18 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $51 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $50 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.66 · official $40.66 (match) · 157 history records