Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:44:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6dd…50ac sports 16 markets active 18d ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$12,483 (+17%) realized +$11,431 · open +$1,052
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$4,539per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$209est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$6,148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$12,800
30 days+$7,938
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% +$16,475
sports 26% −$13,909
other 20% +$8,025
world 20% +$917
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -14.0% -22.2% 56% 44% +2.8%
≤90d 15 -15.4% -23.5% 53% 47% +4.5%
all 15 -15.4% -23.5% 53% 47% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 47% +4.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 47% -5.5%
15% -37.5% 40% -14.6%
20% -43.6% 27% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,658 vs −$2,687 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$6,148
Realized+$11,431
Unrealized+$1,052
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$209
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage24d
Avg bet$4,539
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 47¢ 56¢ $5,096 $6,148 +$1,052 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 17 $12,800 −$12,800 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $23,718 +$16,192 +68%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 11 $1,273 +$33 +3%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $5,797 +$3,596 +62%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1,830 −$1,830 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $3,368 −$1,421 -42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8,672 +$4,115 +48%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $514 +$182 +36%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 26 $792 −$792 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 26 $863 −$863 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3,622 +$3,378 +93%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 23 $1,117 +$283 +25%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner May 23 $971 −$971 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $1,947 +$1,484 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 48¢ $1,273 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $1,079 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $40 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $8 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $38 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $16 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $165 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $3 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $17 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $47 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $38 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $45 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $15 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $497 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $1,280 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $1,280 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $1,280 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $28 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $1,280 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $64 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $20 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $11 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $60 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $93 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $32 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $77 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $211 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $31 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $15 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $369 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,147.98 · official $6,149.07 (match) · 269 history records