Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

D6 0xd6dc…925e other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$526 (+19%) realized +$912 · open −$386

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip

Net edge+5%after slip

Net WR84%break-even

Win rate84%21W / 4L

Drawdown13%max

Avg bet$103per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit59%portable

Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$245

7 days+$530

14 days+$530

30 days+$530

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +84%

net ROI/market (all)+4.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+23.1%	+11.4%	89%	89%	+14.0%
≤30d	19	+23.1%	+11.4%	89%	89%	+14.0%
≤90d	19	+23.1%	+11.4%	89%	89%	+14.0%
all	25	+16.0%	+4.9%	84%	84%	+11.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.9%	84%	+11.9%
10%	-5.1%	64%	+1.2%
15%	-14.3%	36%	-8.6%
20%	-22.7%	20%	-17.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +6% → late +25% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$30 vs −$31 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×5.1 per $1 lost it wins $5.1

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage

Net worth$229

Realized+$912

Unrealized−$386

Win rate (resolved)84%

Wins / losses21 / 4

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions2

Markets (closed)25 / 27

History coverage170d

Avg bet$103

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown13%

Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	64¢	46¢	$315	$229	−$86 (-27%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5	Under	59¢	0¢	$300	$0	−$300 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$251	+$54	+21%
Spread: Norway (-3.5)	Jun 17	$201	+$43	+21%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$201	+$43	+21%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$201	+$62	+31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$151	+$44	+29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$151	+$26	+17%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$51	+$26	+52%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$151	+$55	+36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$101	+$27	+27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$101	+$25	+25%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$51	+$56	+109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$101	+$40	+40%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$51	−$50	-98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5	Jun 13	$50	+$20	+40%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$50	+$15	+29%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$51	+$34	+67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$50	+$8	+16%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5	Jun 11	$51	+$29	+57%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Nigeria?	Jun 10	$26	−$25	-98%
Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club win on 2025-12-29?	Dec 29	$10	+$3	+29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 12PM ET	Dec 29	$25	−$25	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 11AM ET	Dec 29	$25	+$7	+28%
XRP Up or Down - December 29, 10AM ET	Dec 29	$25	−$25	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 9AM ET	Dec 29	$19	+$11	+56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 8AM ET	Dec 29	$25	+$12	+47%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	64¢	$318	48m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5	BUY Under	59¢	$304	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	82¢	$50	17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	82¢	$201	17h
Spread: Norway (-3.5)	BUY Iraq	82¢	$201	20h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	82¢	$201	23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	76¢	$201	43h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	77¢	$151	46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	65¢	$51	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	85¢	$151	2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5	BUY Under	73¢	$50	2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5	BUY Under	73¢	$101	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	100¢	$128	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	78¢	$101	2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5	BUY Under	80¢	$101	3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	47¢	$51	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	SELL No	100¢	$141	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	71¢	$101	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	41¢	$51	3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	100¢	$70	3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	71¢	$50	3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$51	4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY No	77¢	$50	4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	99¢	$58	5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	85¢	$50	5d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	63¢	$51	6d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Nigeria?	BUY Yes	15¢	$26	6d
Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club win on 2025-12-29?	SELL No	88¢	$13	170d
Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club win on 2025-12-29?	BUY No	68¢	$10	170d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 12PM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$25	170d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.07 · official $229.07 (match) · 51 history records