Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:56:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6db…cdd2 crypto 509 markets active 0h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,700 (+19%) realized +$1,786 · open −$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate18%90W / 408L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$511
7 days+$735
14 days+$480
30 days+$480
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% −$741
other 35% +$2,700
sports 15% −$451
world 14% −$437
politics 0% +$316
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 +4.2% -5.7% 11% 11% -25.0%
≤30d 132 +15.6% +4.6% 14% 13% -29.8%
≤90d 278 -26.2% -33.2% 13% 13% -38.1%
all 498 -8.9% -17.6% 18% 16% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 16% -21.6%
10% -25.5% 15% -29.1%
15% -32.7% 13% -35.9%
20% -39.3% 11% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$14 · ×5.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$1,786
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses90 / 408
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions11
Markets (closed)498 / 509
History coverage165d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 498 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 16¢ 17¢ $115 $116 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $69 $76 +$7 (+10%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $37 $2 −$34 (-93%)
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 1 Morocco? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 2 Morocco? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 19¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 133 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $57 −$39 -69%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $56 −$55 -99%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $102 +$107 +105%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $20 +$971 +4854%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $27 −$26 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $0 $0 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 3 Panama? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 24m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 26m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 28m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 28m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 28m
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $24 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 18¢ $18 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $6 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $57 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 3h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.08 · official $208.08 · 2646 history records