Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:30:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D6 0xd6d9…edca crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$25 (+2%) realized +$7 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$155
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$20
crypto 41% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -24.4% -31.6% 38% 38% -38.3%
≤30d 23 +11.2% +0.6% 61% 61% -10.8%
≤90d 23 +11.2% +0.6% 61% 61% -10.8%
all 23 +11.2% +0.6% 61% 61% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 61% -10.8%
10% -9.1% 61% -19.3%
15% -17.8% 57% -27.1%
20% -25.9% 43% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$39 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)23 / 28
History coverage11d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $69 $68 −$0 (-1%)
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 84¢ $34 $60 +$26 (+75%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 57¢ $64 $57 −$7 (-10%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $70 +$28 +40%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $107 −$106 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $38 −$20 -53%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $54 +$38 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$11 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$19 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$14 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $24 +$25 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $38 +$62 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 8h
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 10h
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 10h
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $98 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $55 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 18¢ $18 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $38 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 92¢ $92 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $36 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $45 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.95 · official $284.95 (match) · 51 history records