Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:25:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D6 0xd6d8…dfeb weather 240 markets active 2h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,211 (-12%) realized −$2,208 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%110W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$70
14 days−$2
30 days−$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 63% −$515
world 10% −$250
crypto 9% −$275
other 8% −$397
politics 6% −$483
culture 2% −$212
finance 1% −$100
tech 0% −$34
economics 0% −$2
sports 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -18.8% -26.5% 64% 45% +0.0%
≤30d 36 -5.5% -14.5% 56% 47% -27.3%
≤90d 85 +0.2% -9.3% 67% 56% -13.5%
all 239 -17.8% -25.6% 46% 36% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 36% -21.1%
10% -32.7% 16% -28.7%
15% -39.2% 9% -35.6%
20% -45.2% 5% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$31 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized−$2,208
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses110 / 129
Open positions1
Markets (closed)239 / 240
History coverage194d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? No 73¢ 72¢ $186 $183 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 21 $174 +$14 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 20 $116 +$58 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 19 $101 +$16 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $88 +$13 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $81 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $23 +$7 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $21 −$10 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$21 +202%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $18 +$8 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$3 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 11 $7 −$6 -81%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 11 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $12 +$14 +122%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $5 +$8 +146%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $26 +$25 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $62 −$20 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $51 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 06 $31 +$25 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 05 $21 +$10 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $19 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 30? May 31 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 29? May 30 $21 −$11 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 29? May 29 $40 +$24 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 29? May 29 $26 +$15 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23? May 29 $285 −$285 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 25? May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 25? May 25 $21 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 25 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 22? May 22 $261 +$23 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 21? May 21 $61 +$16 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 18? May 20 $164 +$20 +12%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 20? May 20 $54 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 15? May 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 1 May 17 $485 −$240 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on May 16? May 16 $386 +$18 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C or higher on May 1 May 15 $361 +$26 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on May 14? May 14 $333 +$27 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 14? May 14 $33 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on May 13? May 13 $300 +$34 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 13? May 13 $25 +$7 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 12? May 12 $267 +$32 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 73¢ $188 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $189 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $174 26h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $174 26h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY No 66¢ $116 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $117 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $101 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $101 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $88 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $88 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $81 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $30 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $23 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 97¢ $23 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $21 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 71¢ $31 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 95¢ $31 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $18 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $18 9d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June BUY Yes 82¢ $7 10d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June BUY Yes 70¢ $63 10d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 10d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $26 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.67 · official $182.67 (match) · 693 history records