Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6d5…658b other 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$621 (-34%) realized −$467 · open −$154
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%10W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$103
7 days−$303
14 days−$305
30 days−$305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$218
sports 26% −$77
politics 23% −$152
culture 0% −$6
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-45.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -42.6% -48.1% 26% 26% -31.8%
≤30d 36 -40.2% -45.9% 28% 28% -29.8%
≤90d 36 -40.2% -45.9% 28% 28% -29.8%
all 36 -40.2% -45.9% 28% 28% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.9% 28% -29.8%
10% -51.0% 25% -36.5%
15% -55.8% 22% -42.7%
20% -60.1% 19% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$29 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$467
Unrealized−$154
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses10 / 26
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage9d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $172 $20 −$152 (-88%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $181 +$29 +16%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $30 +$13 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $172 +$102 +60%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $111 −$110 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 +$187 +365%
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $15 −$6 -38%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $75 −$73 -98%
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 +$13 +63%
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$21 +203%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $127 −$125 -99%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $36 +$39 +109%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
South Africa to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $36 −$35 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $25 +$28 +109%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pr Jun 07 $9 −$6 -69%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $50 +$17 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 9m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $210 13m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 53m
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $43 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 74¢ $151 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $31 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 69¢ $30 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $274 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $20 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $152 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 29h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 30h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 32h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 32h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 32h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $238 42h
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 45h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $23 46h
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 46h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 57¢ $30 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $33 46h
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $20 47h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $51 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.51 · official $38.51 (match) · 69 history records