Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:49:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6d3…b1e3 other 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$357 (-0%) realized −$357 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate24%32W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,027per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$826now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$7
14 days−$16
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$67
other 31% −$121
sports 14% −$141
culture 6% −$7
economics 3% −$15
world 2% −$32
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 73 -17.4% -25.2% 8% 3% -10.0%
all 133 -7.1% -15.9% 24% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 8% -9.8%
10% -24.0% 7% -18.4%
15% -31.3% 4% -26.3%
20% -38.1% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,429) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$9 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$826
Realized−$357
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses32 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage140d
Avg bet$1,027
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $827 $826 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $229 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,218 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,787 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $1,208 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,677 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,255 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,252 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,801 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,631 −$4 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $104 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $490 +$2 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $2,172 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,838 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $2,421 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $890 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $690 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 11 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $4,276 −$5 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 08 $1,458 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $2,392 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,491 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,287 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,475 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $1,261 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $902 +$2 +0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $455 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,331 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $6,035 −$6 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $1,252 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $3,387 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $1,307 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $1,502 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $1,304 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $1,485 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $1,354 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $329 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 07 $66 $0 +0%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils Apr 07 $843 +$324 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $236 11m
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $236 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $229 3h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $229 4h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $827 31h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,173 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,175 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,216 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,218 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,237 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,239 6d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,206 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,208 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,333 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,334 11d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,253 11d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,255 11d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,250 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,252 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,341 15d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,343 15d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,274 15d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,276 15d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,274 15d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,276 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $999 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 16d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $814 17d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $816 18d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $820 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $826.44 · official $826.44 (match) · 442 history records