Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6d3…bab9 sports 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$420 (-6%) realized −$363 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%26W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$132est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$616
7 days−$642
14 days−$1,071
30 days−$892
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$967
other 2% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -19.9% -27.5% 33% 33% -39.6%
≤30d 74 -15.3% -23.4% 35% 35% -22.6%
≤90d 74 -15.3% -23.4% 35% 35% -22.6%
all 74 -15.3% -23.4% 35% 35% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 35% -22.6%
10% -30.7% 35% -30.0%
15% -37.4% 34% -36.8%
20% -43.6% 27% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$67 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$363
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses26 / 48
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage16d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 12¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 17 $111 −$19 -18%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $32 −$4 -11%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $77 −$76 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $287 −$284 -99%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 16 $250 −$126 -50%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $86 −$15 -17%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $94 −$92 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $80 +$80 +100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $34 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $59 −$57 -98%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $110 +$108 +99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $107 −$72 -67%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play Jun 11 $215 −$79 -37%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $15 +$5 +36%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $9 +$18 +206%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-3.5) vs AM Gaming (+3.5) Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $585 −$169 -29%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 10 $31 +$29 +93%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $22 +$35 +158%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $141 +$59 +42%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qual Jun 10 $95 +$160 +168%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $10 +$5 +50%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $53 −$53 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $269 −$191 -71%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $96 −$94 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $73 +$77 +105%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $52 −$51 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $65 −$63 -98%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $67 −$66 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $109 +$141 +129%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $69 −$68 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $15 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $217 −$213 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $73 −$13 -18%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 07 $89 +$38 +43%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $319 −$315 -99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $67 −$66 -98%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs FlyQuest (+3.5) Jun 07 $103 −$5 -5%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 Jun 07 $103 −$5 -5%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $5 $0 -0%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $117 +$282 +241%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $82 +$148 +180%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 07 $69 −$68 -98%
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 06 $1 +$1 +167%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Pla Jun 06 $273 +$64 +23%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) SELL Bebop 50¢ $91 1h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) BUY Bebop 59¢ $60 2h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) BUY Bebop 59¢ $51 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ $47 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $165 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 12¢ $12 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ $21 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 47¢ $124 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ $220 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL SPARTA 33¢ $0 6h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL SPARTA 34¢ $28 6h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 37¢ $32 17h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 40¢ $41 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 40¢ $36 20h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 57¢ $9 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 59¢ $12 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 64¢ $13 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 50¢ $106 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 45¢ $1 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 45¢ $2 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 45¢ $15 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 45¢ $14 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 45¢ $15 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 45¢ $2 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 44¢ $10 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 44¢ $10 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 44¢ $13 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 43¢ $66 26h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Lindorfitos 100¢ $129 46h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 25¢ $13 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.11 (match) · 295 history records