Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6d2…4a24 sports 969 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (310 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$555 (+5%) realized +$502 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%107W / 445L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day309.7pace
Fees−$272est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$656now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$4,560
other 10% +$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (310 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 390 +79.5% +62.4% 24% 24% +68.1%
≤30d 552 +44.7% +30.9% 19% 19% +45.9%
≤90d 552 +44.7% +30.9% 19% 19% +45.9%
all 552 +44.7% +30.9% 19% 19% +45.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover309.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +30.9% 19% +45.9%
10% ← realistic here +18.4% 19% +32.0%
15% +7.0% 19% +19.2%
20% -3.5% 19% +7.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +77% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$9 · ×7.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$656
Realized+$502
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses107 / 445
Est. fees paid−$272
Open positions56
Markets (closed)552 / 969
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day309.7
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 552 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Monastir: Isabella De Micco Padula vs Elena Jamshidi Isabella De Micco Padula 18¢ 99¢ $43 $231 +$188 (+438%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Lorenzo Sonego 20¢ 28¢ $31 $44 +$13 (+42%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $41 $43 +$2 (+6%)
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Terence Atmane 17¢ 18¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+3%)
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata Vasco Leote Prata 17¢ 18¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+6%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 13¢ 13¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-3%)
ITF Klosters: Nicolas Parizzia vs Sandro Kopp Nicolas Parizzia 14¢ 12¢ $33 $27 −$6 (-18%)
ITF Luque: Catalina Delmas Schaerer vs Justina Gonzalez Daniele Catalina Delmas Schaerer 5¢ 3¢ $35 $24 −$10 (-29%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina Mariya Yemshanova 8¢ 5¢ $33 $21 −$12 (-37%)
ITF Dinard: Mia Slama vs Juliette Trunet Juliette Trunet 7¢ 3¢ $44 $20 −$24 (-55%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Ekaterina Alexandrova 15¢ 20¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+33%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sara Kastakova vs Marie Mettraux Sara Kastakova 6¢ 5¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-15%)
ITF Kayseri: Felix Roussel vs Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine Felix Roussel 12¢ 99¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+729%)
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin Jakub Vrba 13¢ 100¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+665%)
Spread: Club ABB (-1.5) Club ABB 8¢ 55¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+581%)
ITF Samobor: Mili Poljicak vs Bozo Barun Bozo Barun 4¢ 6¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+52%)
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Barbora Palicova 17¢ 46¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+166%)
ITF Monastir: Tanisha Kashyap vs Mariia Nozdrachova Mariia Nozdrachova 17¢ 88¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+415%)
Will CD Real Tomayapo win on 2026-05-12? Yes 15¢ 49¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+234%)
Grigor Dimitrov vs. Conor Gannon: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 12¢ 50¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+312%)
ITF Dinard: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Monika Wojcik Monika Wojcik 16¢ 16¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+1%)
ITF Mohammedia: Fanny Pire vs Ruth Roura Llaverias Fanny Pire 4¢ 1¢ $21 $3 −$18 (-83%)
ITF Mohammedia: Anna Shkutova vs Saumya Ronde Saumya Ronde 18¢ 17¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vuk Radjenovic vs Nikola Matovic Nikola Matovic 7¢ 1¢ $37 $3 −$34 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 444 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Grant vs Astakhova Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Latvia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-23.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Casablanca: Lina Bezza vs Nina Vargova Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Andorra vs. Liechtenstein: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Breno Braga vs Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Aruba (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Benin vs. Niger: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bolivia vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Cyprus (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Puerto Rico vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Tōkyō vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Nika Radisic Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Kamatamare Sanuki vs. AC Nagano Parceiro: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Andorra vs. Liechtenstein: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Albania vs. Luxembourg: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AS FAR vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida end in a draw? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Luxembourg leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Little Rock: Enzo Aguiard vs Andre Ilagan Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Puerto Rico (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Kuwait (-2.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Kashima Antlers vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Finland (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
San Marino vs. Bangladesh: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Dinard: Mia Slama vs Juliette Trunet BUY Juliette Trunet 1¢ $1 3m
ITF Dinard: Mia Slama vs Juliette Trunet BUY Juliette Trunet 2¢ $0 3m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 5m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 12m
ITF Constanta: Calin Apostol vs Radu David Turcanu BUY Calin Apostol 1¢ $2 13m
ITF Constanta: Calin Apostol vs Radu David Turcanu BUY Calin Apostol 2¢ $2 13m
ITF Constanta: Calin Apostol vs Radu David Turcanu BUY Calin Apostol 3¢ $2 13m
ITF Constanta: Calin Apostol vs Radu David Turcanu BUY Calin Apostol 4¢ $0 13m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 19m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 19m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 20m
ITF Dinard: Mia Slama vs Juliette Trunet BUY Juliette Trunet 2¢ $2 25m
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Chong/Kempen 1¢ $1 27m
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Chong/Kempen 1¢ $0 28m
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Chong/Kempen 2¢ $2 28m
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Chong/Kempen 3¢ $1 28m
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Chong/Kempen 3¢ $0 29m
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Chong/Kempen 3¢ $1 29m
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Chong/Kempen 4¢ $1 29m
ITF Samobor: Mili Poljicak vs Bozo Barun BUY Bozo Barun 3¢ $1 31m
ITF Samobor: Mili Poljicak vs Bozo Barun BUY Bozo Barun 3¢ $2 31m
ITF Samobor: Mili Poljicak vs Bozo Barun BUY Bozo Barun 4¢ $0 32m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 33m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 34m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 19¢ $1 34m
ITF Samobor: Mili Poljicak vs Bozo Barun BUY Bozo Barun 4¢ $1 37m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vuk Radjenovic vs Nikola Matovic BUY Nikola Matovic 1¢ $1 38m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vuk Radjenovic vs Nikola Matovic BUY Nikola Matovic 2¢ $2 38m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vuk Radjenovic vs Nikola Matovic BUY Nikola Matovic 3¢ $1 38m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vuk Radjenovic vs Nikola Matovic BUY Nikola Matovic 3¢ $1 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $656.13 · official $655.95 (match) · 3500 history records