Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:03:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D6 0xd6d2…eec6 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$954 (-17%) realized −$985 · open +$31
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$270
14 days+$26
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$921
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -10.4% -18.9% 75% 50% -6.1%
≤90d 13 -33.0% -39.4% 54% 38% -24.6%
all 29 -10.3% -18.9% 59% 52% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 52% -25.4%
10% -26.6% 48% -32.5%
15% -33.7% 34% -39.0%
20% -40.2% 28% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$167 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized−$985
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage179d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo Adam Walton 76¢ 88¢ $190 $221 +$31 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $276 −$270 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $620 +$180 +29%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 13 $584 +$116 +20%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 06 $514 +$49 +10%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 16 $90 −$89 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 16 $70 +$20 +29%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 03 $127 −$124 -97%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $395 −$388 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 26 $465 +$34 +7%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $111 −$111 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $140 −$136 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors Apr 14 $170 +$39 +23%
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies Apr 02 $130 +$69 +53%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 18 $336 −$336 -100%
Bruins vs. Devils Mar 16 $240 −$240 -100%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Mar 16 $297 +$153 +52%
Islanders vs. Sharks Mar 12 $95 +$75 +79%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 07 $92 +$92 +100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 04 $75 +$28 +37%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Feb 24 $54 +$52 +96%
Thunder vs. Raptors Feb 24 $66 −$66 -100%
Pacers vs. Bucks Feb 20 $106 +$55 +52%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Pistons vs. Raptors Feb 11 $75 −$75 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 06 $95 +$35 +37%
Heat vs. Pistons Feb 01 $13 +$24 +186%
Oregon vs. Indiana Feb 01 $27 +$16 +59%
Cowboys vs. Commanders Feb 01 $33 +$11 +33%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo BUY Adam Walton 76¢ $191 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $276 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $620 8d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 83¢ $584 14d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 91¢ $514 21d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 63¢ $90 36d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 77¢ $70 42d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 11¢ $11 49d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 11¢ $116 49d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 34¢ $8 56d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 34¢ $388 56d
LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 93¢ $465 59d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 89¢ $111 61d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY G2 10¢ $140 67d
Cavaliers vs. Warriors BUY Cavaliers 81¢ $170 80d
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies BUY Connecticut Huskies 65¢ $130 90d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 56¢ $336 95d
Bruins vs. Devils BUY Bruins 48¢ $240 97d
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies BUY Mavericks 66¢ $297 100d
Islanders vs. Sharks BUY Islanders 56¢ $95 106d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 BUY Liquid 50¢ $92 108d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 73¢ $75 114d
Thunder vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 51¢ $66 117d
Jazz vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 51¢ $54 120d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage BUY FaZe 42¢ $5 125d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage BUY FaZe 42¢ $60 125d
Pistons vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 46¢ $23 130d
Pistons vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 46¢ $23 130d
Pistons vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 46¢ $23 130d
Pistons vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 45¢ $6 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.25 · official $221.25 (match) · 58 history records