Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:47:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6d1…e887 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,082 (-35%) realized −$460 · open −$622
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$347now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$938
sports 50% −$597
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -25.2% -32.3% 44% 38% -49.0%
≤30d 16 -25.2% -32.3% 44% 38% -49.0%
≤90d 16 -25.2% -32.3% 44% 38% -49.0%
all 16 -25.2% -32.3% 44% 38% -49.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 38% -49.0%
10% -38.8% 31% -53.9%
15% -44.7% 25% -58.3%
20% -50.1% 25% -62.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$135 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$347
Realized−$460
Unrealized−$622
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage3d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $310 $308 −$3 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $44 $39 −$5 (-12%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $615 $1 −$614 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 −$56 -91%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $132 +$21 +16%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 −$55 -54%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $106 +$81 +76%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $166 +$38 +23%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $159 +$10 +6%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$42 -82%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $172 −$169 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $239 +$132 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $221 −$220 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $315 30m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $520 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 3h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $509 9h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $45 9h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 18h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 18h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 18h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 19h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 19h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $152 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 86¢ $132 28h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 29¢ $46 28h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 62¢ $101 28h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 56¢ $106 35h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 67¢ $101 35h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 81¢ $166 39h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $169 39h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $159 40h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 40h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $172 41h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $371 41h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $19 44h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 44h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $104 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.85 · official $346.85 (match) · 37 history records