Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:24:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D6 0xd6cf…d3f0 sports 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,127 (+1%) realized +$1,130 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%58W / 71L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$601per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$573est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,907
7 days−$376
14 days+$870
30 days+$1,153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$142
sports 29% −$309
world 16% +$295
crypto 3% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -11.0% -19.5% 41% 41% -9.9%
≤30d 73 +4.2% -5.7% 51% 42% -7.6%
≤90d 126 +9.1% -1.3% 45% 39% -7.8%
all 129 +8.6% -1.8% 45% 39% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 39% -9.3%
10% -11.2% 31% -18.0%
15% -19.8% 22% -25.9%
20% -27.6% 16% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +25% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$229 vs −$190 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$1,130
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses58 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$573
Open positions2
Markets (closed)129 / 143
History coverage192d
Avg bet$601
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karmine Corp win MSI 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-52%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? Yes 26¢ 38¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $4,636 −$124 -3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $405 −$235 -58%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $4,275 +$833 +20%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2,318 −$1,984 -86%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. England: O/U 2. Jun 27 $306 −$97 -32%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $84 −$70 -83%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $810 +$532 +66%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $6,998 +$2,484 +36%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. France: Both Tea Jun 26 $795 −$162 -20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,998 −$1,180 -59%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $899 −$886 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $520 −$162 -31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $547 +$453 +83%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $679 +$211 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $8,038 −$247 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7,668 +$1,838 +24%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2,120 +$968 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5,024 −$2,779 -55%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Tea Jun 23 $76 +$118 +155%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $509 +$711 +140%
Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026? Jun 22 $10 +$3 +24%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2,856 −$10 -0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $204 +$50 +24%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams Jun 21 $51 +$72 +142%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,353 +$647 +48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21 Jun 20 $54 −$37 -68%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 20 $102 −$57 -56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $145 +$55 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $102 +$201 +197%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $200 +$40 +20%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $137 +$31 +22%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $176 +$47 +26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $85 +$40 +47%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $245 +$15 +6%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 16 $6 −$3 -55%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $19 $0 -1%
Will Top Esports win MSI 2026? Jun 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Deep Cross Gaming win MSI 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $612 +$170 +28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $1,717 −$272 -16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $460 +$75 +16%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $350 +$82 +23%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $386 +$46 +12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $515 −$100 -19%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $430 +$30 +7%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $458 +$28 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $26 −$21 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 72¢ $4,438 52m
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $4,636 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 24¢ $171 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $405 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 92¢ $5,108 26h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 77¢ $7 26h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 77¢ $4,158 26h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 77¢ $110 26h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 39¢ $300 32h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 13¢ $16 44h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. England: O/U 2. SELL 26¢ $209 44h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 77¢ $2,014 44h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 26¢ $139 44h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $304 47h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. England: O/U 2. BUY 37¢ $306 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Power Rangers 6¢ $15 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 33¢ $84 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 89¢ $9,482 3d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. France: Both Tea SELL 17¢ $634 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $6,998 3d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score AND Norway vs. France: Both Tea BUY 20¢ $795 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $39 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $717 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.50 · official $4.29 (match) · 754 history records