Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:48:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6cd…dbc1 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (183 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$400 (+11%) realized +$400 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day183.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$756
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (183 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -18.9% -26.6% 35% 35% +8.6%
≤30d 20 -18.9% -26.6% 35% 35% +8.6%
≤90d 20 -18.9% -26.6% 35% 35% +8.6%
all 20 -18.9% -26.6% 35% 35% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover183.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.6% 35% +8.6%
10% ← realistic here -33.6% 35% -1.8%
15% -40.1% 35% -11.3%
20% -45.9% 35% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$245 vs −$74 · ×3.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$400
Realized+$400
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day183.0
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $200 +$200 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $676 +$509 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $423 −$207 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $237 −$49 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $58 −$26 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $170 +$112 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET Jun 21 $230 +$148 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $44 −$36 -83%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $440 +$306 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $370 +$331 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $109 −$26 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $158 −$153 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $99 −$14 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $114 +$105 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $100 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $47 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $53 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $17 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $400.00 · official $400.00 (match) · 187 history records