Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:15:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D6 0xd6cd…622d crypto 932 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$178 (-2%) realized −$162 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%498W / 428L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day40.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$279
14 days−$218
30 days−$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$209
weather 2% +$35
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 696 -2.6% -11.9% 52% 51% -13.0%
≤30d 722 -0.8% -10.2% 52% 51% -12.2%
≤90d 926 +0.4% -9.2% 54% 49% -10.9%
all 926 +0.4% -9.2% 54% 49% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 49% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 44% -19.4%
15% -25.8% 40% -27.2%
20% -33.1% 36% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$162
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses498 / 428
Open positions6
Markets (closed)926 / 932
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day40.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 926 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 26? No 53¢ 76¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+44%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? No 21¢ 14¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-33%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 26? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 25? Yes 37¢ 2¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on June 25? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 25? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$21 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $13 +$10 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $7 +$4 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $14 +$10 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$10 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $28 +$24 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $14 +$11 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$4 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$12 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $27 +$23 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $18 −$10 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $29 +$24 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $14 +$9 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $13 +$12 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$15 +132%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$10 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $57 −$56 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $50 −$7 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $7 +$5 +74%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 25 $18 −$11 -63%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 25? Jun 25 $13 +$31 +240%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 25? Jun 25 $9 +$1 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $15 +$3 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 25? Jun 25 $11 +$3 +27%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 25? Jun 25 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $13 +$18 +138%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 25? Jun 25 $20 +$6 +32%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $20 +$11 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $34 −$9 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $34 +$20 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$2 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$13 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$28 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $34 +$20 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $0 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $13 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $7 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $14 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $9 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $12 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.76 · official $44.53 (match) · 3500 history records