Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:39:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D6 0xd6cc…cc13 politics 128 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$18
politics 43% −$18
sports 7% +$18
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 114 -2.5% -11.8% 8% 5% -9.6%
all 125 +0.8% -8.8% 10% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 6% -9.6%
10% -17.5% 3% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×7.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)125 / 128
History coverage116d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 85¢ 84¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $289 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $385 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $347 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $34 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $222 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 21 $270 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 17 $225 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 16 $325 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $289 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $939 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 12 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $556 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $248 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $272 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $278 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $231 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $288 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $274 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $264 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $201 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $268 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $263 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 02 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $250 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 30 $276 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $333 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $294 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 22 $263 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $288 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $945 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $238 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $268 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $257 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 22m
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 22m
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 4h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 85¢ $45 4h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $51 4h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $51 7h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 11h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 33h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 33h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 10d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $47 10d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 10d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 10d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 12d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $35 13d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 14d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 14d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $241 23d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $241 27d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $222 29d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $222 30d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $270 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.17 · official $101.17 (match) · 377 history records