Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:33:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd6c9…396d
sports · 70 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
+$12,273 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$87,622 · open +$99,895
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Net worth$188,565
Realized−$87,622
Unrealized+$99,895
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses40 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$2,636
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage192d
Avg bet$9,015
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 1 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$108,925
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 100¢ $88,670 $188,565 +$99,895 (+113%)
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Rico 60¢ $19,125 $0 −$19,125 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Yes 13¢ $10,442 $0 −$10,442 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $10,443 −$10,442 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $19,211 −$19,125 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $27,365 +$504 +2%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5,050 −$634 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $3,619 −$1,463 -40%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 22 $3,159 −$3,159 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 22 $10,622 −$10,622 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 22 $25,652 −$25,652 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 22 $3,400 −$3,400 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 17 $7,805 +$5,195 +67%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 17 $40,128 −$40,128 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $26,270 +$20,230 +77%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $4,619 +$3,373 +73%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $5,093 +$3,247 +64%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 09 $1,927 +$541 +28%
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $16,349 +$9,965 +61%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $366 +$269 +74%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $20,544 +$18,825 +92%
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card) May 02 $2,426 +$1,324 +55%
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Pre May 02 $5,063 −$5,063 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim May 02 $1,242 +$1,156 +93%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $1,775 +$78 +4%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 28 $529 −$529 -100%
UFC 326: Ricky Turcios vs. Alberto Montes (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 28 $600 −$600 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Jordan Leavitt vs. Yadier del Valle (Featherweight, P Apr 28 $26,500 −$26,500 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Apr 28 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will England win on 2026-03-31? Apr 28 $8,004 −$8,004 -100%
UFC 326: Rodolfo Bellato vs. Luke Fernandez (Light Heavyweight, Early Apr 28 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 28 $3,750 −$3,750 -100%
Fulham FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 28 $2,846 −$2,846 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Ca Apr 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 28 $2,484 −$2,484 -100%
UFC 327: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque (Middleweight, Early Prelim Apr 28 $35,433 −$35,433 -100%
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 28 $3,200 −$3,200 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sam Hughes vs. Piera Rodriguez (Women's Strawweight, Apr 28 $3,010 −$3,010 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Apr 28 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
UFC 326: Diyar Nurgozhay vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Prelims Apr 28 $1,660 −$1,660 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims) Apr 28 $4,997 −$4,997 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 19 $5,251 +$2,251 +43%
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma Apr 19 $7,655 +$5,438 +71%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Apr 18 $4,499 +$3,156 +70%
Fight to Go the Distance? Apr 12 $700 +$549 +78%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $4,646 +$4,151 +89%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Apr 12 $3,016 +$1,479 +49%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 08 $12,895 −$12,895 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $1,000 +$1,613 +161%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $3,705 +$10,181 +275%
UFC Fight Night: Alessandro Costa vs. Stewart Nicoll (Flyweight, Preli Apr 04 $1,794 +$504 +28%
UFC Fight Night: Tresean Gore vs. Azamat Bekoev (Middleweight, Prelims Apr 04 $3,000 +$7,389 +246%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $4,032 +$3,168 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 63% −$76,804
other 28% +$104,977
world 8% −$3,006
politics 2% −$12,895
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $90,080 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $202 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $124 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $27 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $125 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $279 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $110 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $42 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,102 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,261 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $389 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $480 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $857 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $42 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $37 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -62.2% -65.8% 18% 9% -72.6%
≤90d 56 -8.5% -17.2% 52% 48% -33.2%
all 69 -2.4% -11.7% 58% 55% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 55% -24.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 51% -31.4%
15% -27.8% 41% -38.1%
20% -34.9% 33% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188,565.15 · official $188,565.15 (match) · 1272 history records