Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D6 0xd6c7…519b crypto 321 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (144 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+1%) realized +$50 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%130W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day144.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$145
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$3
sports 4% $0
world 3% $0
tech 0% −$4
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (144 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 +2.2% -7.5% 47% 42% -1.7%
≤30d 313 -5.2% -14.2% 42% 36% -9.7%
≤90d 313 -5.2% -14.2% 42% 36% -9.7%
all 313 -5.2% -14.2% 42% 36% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover144.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 36% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 35% -18.3%
15% -29.9% 33% -26.2%
20% -36.8% 29% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$11 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses130 / 183
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)313 / 321
History coverage12d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day144.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 313 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 93¢ 96¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -88%
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 14 $24 −$1 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 14 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$9 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$7 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$26 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$8 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$10 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$6 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$11 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$15 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$24 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$20 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$16 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $13 42m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $2 55m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $15 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $3 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $2 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 93¢ $1 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $4 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.08 · official $138.79 (match) · 2050 history records