Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D6 0xd6c6…3a06 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+5%) realized +$41 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$12
other 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -9.8% -18.4% 67% 67% +6.9%
≤30d 6 -9.8% -18.4% 67% 67% +6.9%
≤90d 6 -9.8% -18.4% 67% 67% +6.9%
all 6 -9.8% -18.4% 67% 67% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 67% +6.9%
10% -26.2% 50% -3.3%
15% -33.4% 17% -12.7%
20% -39.9% 17% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.04 per $1 lost it wins $3.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$41
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)6 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ 60¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$6 +19%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$6 +61%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $10 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $36 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $30 2h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $30 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $30 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 71¢ $13 4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 50¢ $16 4h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) SELL Portugal 20¢ $14 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $10 6h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $10 6h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 14¢ $10 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.35 · official $119.35 (match) · 15 history records