Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:22:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6c4…b1d9 world 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate35%33W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$2
other 19% +$10
sports 17% −$20
politics 16% −$1
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 25 -0.7% -10.2% 40% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 73 +0.0% -9.5% 37% 1% -9.6%
all 95 +8.1% -2.2% 35% 6% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 6% -10.0%
10% -11.5% 6% -18.6%
15% -20.1% 6% -26.5%
20% -27.9% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses33 / 62
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)95 / 97
History coverage535d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 67¢ 68¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 64¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $44 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $14 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $33 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $29 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $102 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $14 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $64 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $3 −$1 -17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $36 −$5 -15%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $71 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $39 +$4 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $79 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $109 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $50 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $70 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $58 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $36 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 17 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $3 $0 -2%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 08 $1 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 06 $2 $0 -2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $69 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $20 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $73 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $159 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $82 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $63 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $26 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $31 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $31 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $24 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $7 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $30 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $30 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $24 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $6 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $33 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $8 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $22 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $29 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.14 · official $26.71 · 385 history records