Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D6 0xd6c4…4801 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$759 (-22%) realized −$759 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,497
7 days−$963
14 days−$963
30 days−$628
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$1,005
sports 21% +$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +57.6% +42.6% 67% 67% -40.7%
≤30d 10 +58.5% +43.4% 70% 70% -26.8%
≤90d 11 +44.3% +30.6% 64% 64% -30.8%
all 11 +44.3% +30.6% 64% 64% -30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.6% 64% -30.8%
10% +18.1% 55% -37.4%
15% +6.7% 55% -43.5%
20% -3.8% 45% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$434 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$759
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage96d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 +$40 +155%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $307 −$29 -9%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$3 +83%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -54%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +211%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $1,511 −$1,511 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $98 +$167 +170%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $846 +$367 +43%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $499 +$335 +67%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $199 −$195 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $126 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $176 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $34 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $152 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $70 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $57 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,511 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $265 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,213 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $795 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $98 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 6d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $834 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 30d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 59¢ $497 30d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 41d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records