Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:51:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6c1…2bad world 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate55%28W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$26
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$1
other 15% $0
sports 12% $0
culture 2% +$2
finance 1% $0
politics 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 43% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 26 -4.8% -13.8% 38% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 32 -4.1% -13.3% 41% 3% -9.6%
all 51 -1.8% -11.1% 55% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 4% -9.4%
10% -19.6% 2% -18.0%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses28 / 23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage469d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 43¢ 42¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 81¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 52¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $85 −$2 -3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $83 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $76 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $73 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $78 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $160 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $132 +$25 +19%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $128 +$4 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $52 −$1 -2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $53 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $110 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $211 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $105 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $64 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $52 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $142 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $139 −$3 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $55 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 25 $171 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 24 $54 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $80 −$28 -35%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $159 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $23 −$3 -14%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $90 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $52 +$2 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $79 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $222 +$1 +0%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 14 $243 +$1 +0%
Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 14 $222 −$1 -1%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Mar 11 $17 +$4 +24%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $14 $0 +2%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 06 $13 +$1 +4%
Circle IPO in 2025? Jun 02 $13 $0 +1%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%? Jun 01 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $14 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 30 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 24 $12 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? May 22 $11 $0 +2%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $82 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $85 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $84 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $83 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $76 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $76 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $43 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $32 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $33 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $43 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $63 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $24 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $38 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 51¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 51¢ $11 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $76 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $76 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $20 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $53 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $75 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $76 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $76 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.40 · official $36.10 (match) · 199 history records