Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:58:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

D6 0xd6c0…45c7 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$13 (+3%) realized +$81 · open −$68

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip

Net edge+49%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$154per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+49.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	+64.8%	+49.1%	100%	100%	+49.1%
≤90d	1	+64.8%	+49.1%	100%	100%	+49.1%
all	1	+64.8%	+49.1%	100%	100%	+49.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+49.1%	100%	+49.1%
10%	+34.9%	100%	+34.9%
15%	+21.8%	100%	+21.8%
20%	+9.9%	100%	+9.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +65% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +65% · $-wt +65% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$79 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$262

Realized+$81

Unrealized−$68

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage18d

Avg bet$154

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	7¢	$250	$181	−$69 (-27%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	15¢	15¢	$80	$81	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$122	+$79	+65%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	BUY Yes	15¢	$82	1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$51	1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	80¢	$89	10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$205	15d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	54¢	$122	18d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $262.46 · official $262.46 (match) · 22 history records