Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:03:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6be…e8a6 sports 242 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%22W / 220L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% +$17
politics 22% −$35
other 22% −$5
economics 9% −$3
crypto 9% −$2
culture 4% −$1
world 3% $0
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 58 -0.4% -9.9% 12% 2% -10.0%
all 242 -0.2% -9.7% 9% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses22 / 220
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)242 / 242
History coverage174d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 242 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $108 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 15 $26 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $138 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $74 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $71 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $88 +$21 +24%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $105 −$33 -31%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $94 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 27 $29 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 22 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $193 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $79 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 15 $68 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 14 $23 $0 -1%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $137 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $80 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 12 $25 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 12 $113 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 11 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 10 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 09 $111 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 01 $102 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 01 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $118 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $98 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 31 $196 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 31 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 30 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 30 $71 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 29 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $32 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 91¢ $30 1h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 91¢ $30 9h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 94¢ $18 13d
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $10 13d
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $7 13d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $27 25d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $6 25d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $22 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL No 95¢ $25 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? BUY No 96¢ $26 38d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $31 38d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $31 38d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $21 52d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $21 52d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $23 52d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $23 52d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $29 52d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $30 53d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $21 53d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $32 53d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $21 53d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $21 53d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $20 56d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $20 56d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $24 56d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $24 56d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $33 56d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $33 56d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? SELL No 99¢ $29 56d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $29 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 881 history records