Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:28:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd6b5…9cf9 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$96 (+4%) realized +$94 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$116
14 days+$116
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$98
tech 7% +$35
politics 5% +$4
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -16.7% -24.7% 78% 11% -4.7%
≤30d 11 -22.2% -29.6% 73% 9% -4.7%
≤90d 13 -18.1% -25.9% 77% 8% -4.8%
all 13 -18.1% -25.9% 77% 8% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 8% -4.8%
10% -33.0% 0% -13.9%
15% -39.5% 0% -22.2%
20% -45.4% 0% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$6 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.81 per $1 lost it wins $7.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$94
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage38d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $10 $13 +$2 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $434 +$37 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 17 $166 +$35 +21%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $348 +$9 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $341 +$7 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$26 +9%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $285 +$15 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $286 +$4 +2%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 01 $188 +$12 +6%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump Leave China on May 15? May 15 $119 +$4 +3%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $8 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $434 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 70¢ $96 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No $15 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $348 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $341 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $47 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $16 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $4 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $55 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $43 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $8 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $23 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $86 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $285 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $286 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 47¢ $2 13d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 75¢ $105 15d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 60¢ $2 30d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 60¢ $164 32d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 94¢ $188 33d
Will Trump Leave China on May 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $32 35d
Will Trump Leave China on May 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $87 35d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $8 37d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.85 · official $12.85 (match) · 76 history records