Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:59:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6b4…b5ee other 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 551d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate19%11W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 74% −$14
politics 16% −$15
other 7% +$4
sports 1% −$42
world 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +20.9% +9.4% 20% 20% -4.9%
≤30d 18 +0.2% -9.4% 17% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 48 -6.5% -15.4% 17% 8% -11.1%
all 58 -5.5% -14.5% 19% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 7% -9.8%
10% -22.7% 7% -18.5%
15% -30.1% 7% -26.4%
20% -37.0% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

551d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses11 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage551d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $18 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $7 +$7 +105%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $87 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $75 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 13 $79 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $75 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $79 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $83 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $81 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $83 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $84 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $84 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $83 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $82 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $84 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $78 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $77 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $77 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $83 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $9 +$4 +48%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 +$9 +165%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $9 +$7 +72%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Flames vs. Golden Knights Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 02 $21 $0 +1%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 01 $41 $0 +1%
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Saint Mary's Gaels Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $77 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $160 in February? Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 2h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 4d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 7d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 48¢ $7 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $17 10d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 10d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 12d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 13d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 13d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 14d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $14 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $14 16d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 17d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $21 19d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 22d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 22d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $12 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $12 24d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 25d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 218 history records