Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:26:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6b4…e03c crypto 66 markets active 6d ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-4%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate45%30W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$17
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -11.2% -19.6% 59% 29% -7.4%
≤30d 66 -20.1% -27.7% 45% 30% -18.5%
≤90d 66 -20.1% -27.7% 45% 30% -18.5%
all 66 -20.1% -27.7% 45% 30% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 30% -18.5%
10% -34.6% 27% -26.3%
15% -40.9% 20% -33.4%
20% -46.7% 14% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses30 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage12d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$8 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 31 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 31 $6 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 31 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 31 $1 +$3 +326%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 31 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 31 $2 +$7 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 31 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 31 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 31 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 30 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 30 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 185 history records