Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:53:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6b1…74e2 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$29 (-14%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$13
sports 26% +$4
crypto 9% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -15.8% -23.8% 46% 38% -21.7%
≤30d 13 -15.8% -23.8% 46% 38% -21.7%
≤90d 13 -15.8% -23.8% 46% 38% -21.7%
all 13 -15.8% -23.8% 46% 38% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 38% -21.7%
10% -31.1% 38% -29.2%
15% -37.8% 23% -36.0%
20% -43.9% 23% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $37 +$1 +2%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$9 +180%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $55 +$19 +35%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$7 +137%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 +$18 +118%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 37m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $37 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $14 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 7h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 35¢ $5 7h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $35 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $12 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $15 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records