Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:22:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6ac…93cb world 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate39%41W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$4
other 18% −$19
sports 17% +$9
politics 15% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 35 +0.0% -9.5% 37% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 77 -1.8% -11.2% 34% 0% -9.7%
all 104 -1.3% -10.7% 39% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 1% -9.9%
10% -19.3% 1% -18.5%
15% -27.1% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.2% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses41 / 63
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage491d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 90¢ 95¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $62 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $40 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $98 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $58 −$2 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $83 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 11 $4 $0 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $7 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $97 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $68 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $11 +$1 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $139 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $143 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $47 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $47 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $31 −$6 -19%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $69 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $28 $0 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $18 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 27 $49 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $63 +$4 +6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $64 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $17 +$1 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 19 $45 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $109 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $75 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $15 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $143 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $6 $0 -5%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $178 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $98 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $91 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $42 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $42 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $42 5h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $39 9h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $15 15h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $24 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $19 21h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $12 23h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $8 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $15 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $5 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $17 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $37 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $15 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 17¢ $13 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 21¢ $8 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 21¢ $8 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $42 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.02 · official $45.02 (match) · 468 history records