Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:11:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D6 0xd6ab…e8de other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$577 (-6%) realized −$729 · open +$152
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%26W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$840now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$334
7 days−$1,166
14 days−$814
30 days−$814
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$133
world 19% −$744
sports 12% +$59
crypto 9% +$156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -27.5% -34.4% 39% 33% -24.8%
≤30d 61 -20.5% -28.1% 43% 36% -18.5%
≤90d 61 -20.5% -28.1% 43% 36% -18.5%
all 61 -20.5% -28.1% 43% 36% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 36% -18.5%
10% -35.0% 28% -26.3%
15% -41.3% 18% -33.4%
20% -47.0% 10% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$54 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$840
Realized−$729
Unrealized+$152
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses26 / 35
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 64
History coverage25d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $500 $650 +$150 (+30%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $188 $190 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $62 +$19 +32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$42 +41%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $23 +$29 +123%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $154 −$69 -45%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 −$92 -90%
Sweden to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 20 $66 −$65 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 20 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $286 +$6 +2%
Will Gonçalo Ramos score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $113 −$24 -21%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $275 −$55 -20%
Will Bruno Fernandes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $501 −$33 -7%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $28 −$5 -18%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $142 −$40 -28%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $77 +$2 +3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $186 +$64 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $27 $0 -1%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $338 −$29 -9%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $174 +$43 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$4 +17%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $167 +$17 +10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$54 +54%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $60 −$45 -75%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $267 −$42 -16%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $87 −$79 -90%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $101 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$10 +19%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $202 +$79 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$33 +33%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $204 −$168 -82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,157 −$638 -55%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $993 −$8 -1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $152 +$120 +79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $4 +$1 +17%
Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $90 −$89 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $61 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $191 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 1h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $62 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $52 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $23 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $85 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $154 11h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $514 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 14h
Sweden to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 38¢ $66 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 9¢ $18 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $81 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 39¢ $273 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 28h
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 31h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 32h
Will Gonçalo Ramos score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 57¢ $89 35h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $220 35h
Will Bruno Fernandes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $142 35h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 73¢ $101 35h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $100 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $61 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $114 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $840.00 · official $840.00 (match) · 177 history records