Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6a8…5539 sports 477 markets active 1h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$127 (-10%) realized −$102 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%185W / 256L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$48
14 days−$51
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$32
crypto 13% −$119
other 8% +$1
world 3% −$20
politics 3% −$19
economics 1% −$12
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -28.5% -35.3% 32% 32% -58.4%
≤30d 49 -30.5% -37.2% 33% 31% -49.5%
≤90d 204 -0.6% -10.1% 40% 38% -21.5%
all 441 -6.0% -15.0% 42% 41% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 41% -18.4%
10% -23.1% 37% -26.2%
15% -30.5% 33% -33.3%
20% -37.4% 29% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$102
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses185 / 256
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions36
Markets (closed)441 / 477
History coverage212d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 441 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 81¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 43¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+129%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 69¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Over 41¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+69%)
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 2¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-84%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 56¢ 28¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-49%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes 13¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 30¢ 12¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-62%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 36¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Over 22¢ 21¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +451%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $2 +$2 +114%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $2 +$2 +101%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $2 +$3 +165%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 21 $1 +$1 +83%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 21 $1 +$2 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 20 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 20 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 19 $2 +$4 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 22¢ $1 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $1 24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $1 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 25h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 25h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.17 · official $44.18 (match) · 1011 history records