Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:35:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D6 0xd6a7…c8b3 sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$351 (+55%) realized +$351 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$408
14 days+$380
30 days+$358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$290
politics 31% +$36
other 19% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +278.0% +242.0% 71% 71% +236.0%
≤30d 15 +94.7% +76.1% 40% 40% +82.5%
≤90d 30 +30.1% +17.7% 37% 37% +49.2%
all 30 +30.1% +17.7% 37% 37% +49.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.7% 37% +49.2%
10% +6.4% 37% +35.0%
15% -3.8% 33% +21.9%
20% -13.3% 23% +10.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +95% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$9 · ×5.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.15 per $1 lost it wins $3.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$351
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage70d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Romano Schmid: 1+ shots AND Marcel Sab Jun 17 $23 +$13 +56%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$32 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $5 +$11 +216%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $21 +$377 +1771%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $40 +$11 +27%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $15 −$15 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $51 −$24 -48%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 22 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 22 $78 −$4 -6%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Jakub Mensik May 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ignacio Buse May 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will CD Los Chankas win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $10 +$4 +44%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 17 $106 +$41 +38%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $3 +$4 +146%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse May 09 $5 +$8 +158%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $10 +$10 +97%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $15 −$14 -90%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $6 −$6 -97%
Will CD Los Chankas win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Romano Schmid: 1+ shots AND Marcel Sab BUY 63¢ $23 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $61 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY 69¢ $10 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 34h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 31¢ $5 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 41h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $20 2d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 78¢ $40 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $5 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $5 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $5 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 69¢ $26 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $51 17d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $40 17d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 17d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $60 17d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 11¢ $5 22d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 22d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 56¢ $4 26d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 21¢ $4 26d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 36¢ $5 26d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 22¢ $5 26d
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Jakub Mensik BUY Jakub Mensik 64¢ $4 29d
Hamburg European Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ignacio Buse BUY Flavio Cobolli 57¢ $10 30d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 64¢ $3 31d
Will CD Los Chankas win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 31d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $6 31d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 40¢ $3 34d
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.35 · official $52.35 (match) · 85 history records