Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:44:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6a5…137d other 10 markets active 9h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,052 (-8%) realized −$3,919 · open +$867
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,957per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$35,280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$3,383
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$2,125 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$35,280
Realized−$3,919
Unrealized+$867
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)2 / 10
History coverage18d
Avg bet$3,957
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 21¢ $4,500 $10,815 +$6,315 (+140%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $8,999 $8,317 −$681 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $9,000 $6,100 −$2,900 (-32%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3,500 $4,550 +$1,050 (+30%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $4,000 $2,704 −$1,296 (-32%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1,500 $1,183 −$317 (-21%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,500 $917 −$583 (-39%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $1,414 $693 −$721 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3,578 −$3,500 -98%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $750 −$750 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $3,578 8h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $249 10d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $23 10d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $125 10d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $101 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,538 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,539 10d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $496 16d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 17d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 17d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 17d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $899 17d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 17d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 17d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $56 17d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 17d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 17d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 17d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 17d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35,280.07 · official $35,280.07 (match) · 86 history records