Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:35:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6a5…900a sports 145 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-3%) realized −$48 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%63W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$63
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$61
other 6% +$11
weather 1% −$10
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -46.7% -51.8% 25% 25% -63.0%
≤30d 83 -13.9% -22.1% 42% 41% -18.0%
≤90d 142 -5.8% -14.8% 44% 44% -13.8%
all 142 -5.8% -14.8% 44% 44% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 44% -13.8%
10% -22.9% 43% -22.0%
15% -30.4% 41% -29.6%
20% -37.2% 37% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses63 / 79
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)142 / 145
History coverage42d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 38¢ 80¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+112%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 48¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $15 −$13 -84%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $5 +$5 +109%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $5 +$2 +42%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $10 +$4 +45%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $5 +$2 +42%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $10 −$5 -54%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $10 +$15 +149%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $5 +$5 +97%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $10 +$6 +59%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $10 +$8 +81%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $5 +$4 +70%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 04 $15 −$6 -40%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $15 +$12 +83%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $15 +$12 +83%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 30 $15 −$15 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $15 +$12 +79%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $30 +$3 +9%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $15 +$4 +29%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 28 $15 +$5 +31%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $30 +$32 +105%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $15 +$27 +180%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $15 +$15 +97%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $15 +$16 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 2m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 2m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 2m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 5m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 5m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 5m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 10m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 14m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 14m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 18m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 20m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 22m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 24m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 25m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 26m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 26m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 31m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 31m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 32m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 37m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 38m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 42m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 47m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 51m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 51m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 54m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 59m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.63 · official $22.63 (match) · 465 history records