trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | +64.9% | +49.2% | 45% | 36% | -15.6% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +53.1% | +38.6% | 43% | 36% | -13.0% |
| ≤90d | 18 | +48.6% | +34.5% | 39% | 33% | -11.7% |
| all | 22 | +39.2% | +26.0% | 41% | 27% | -11.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +26.0% | 27% | -11.6% |
| 10% | +13.9% | 23% | -20.0% |
| 15% | +2.9% | 23% | -27.8% |
| 20% | -7.2% | 23% | -34.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 20¢ | 20¢ | $2,287 | $2,282 | −$6 (-0%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 14¢ | 14¢ | $1,606 | $1,600 | −$6 (-0%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 13¢ | 13¢ | $1,525 | $1,519 | −$6 (-0%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 13¢ | 12¢ | $1,456 | $1,438 | −$17 (-1%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 7¢ | 7¢ | $786 | $780 | −$6 (-1%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $658 | $653 | −$6 (-1%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $624 | $618 | −$6 (-1%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6¢ | 5¢ | $647 | $583 | −$64 (-10%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers vs. Warriors | Jun 22 | $53 | −$53 | -100% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers | Jun 22 | $4,925 | −$5 | -0% |
| Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? | Jun 22 | $510 | −$49 | -10% |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $508 | −$349 | -69% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $3,030 | −$1,291 | -43% |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $205 | −$27 | -13% |
| Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Jun 21 | $102 | +$298 | +291% |
| Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? | Jun 20 | $432 | +$37 | +8% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $51 | +$280 | +546% |
| Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $206 | +$44 | +21% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $508 | +$412 | +81% |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 14 | $515 | +$319 | +62% |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $824 | −$264 | -32% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees | Jun 11 | $4,858 | $0 | +0% |
| Suns vs. Lakers | Apr 11 | $1,000 | −$339 | -34% |
| Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners | Apr 11 | $4,458 | $0 | +0% |
| Lakers vs. Mavericks | Apr 06 | $200 | +$330 | +165% |
| Clippers vs. Pacers | Apr 04 | $4,925 | $0 | +0% |
| Red Wings vs. Senators | Mar 10 | $3,951 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Feb 28 | $823 | +$7 | +1% |
| Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? | Feb 26 | $800 | −$105 | -13% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Feb 25 | $188 | +$1 | +0% |