Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd6a3…9738 sports 466 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$78,111 (+25%) realized +$64,501 · open +$13,610
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%239W / 192L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$665per market
Trades / day40.7pace
Fees−$3,646est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$50,872now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,849
7 days−$7,709
14 days−$7,509
30 days+$4,440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$45,228
other 12% +$9,534
world 2% +$1,283
tech 1% −$435
crypto 1% −$1,025
economics 0% −$3
finance 0% +$2,779
politics 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -7.8% -16.6% 48% 46% -31.3%
≤30d 189 +2.2% -7.5% 57% 55% -6.1%
≤90d 431 +4.4% -5.5% 55% 54% +4.2%
all 431 +4.4% -5.5% 55% 54% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 54% +4.2%
10% -14.6% 52% -5.8%
15% ← realistic here -22.8% 44% -14.9%
20% -30.4% 32% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$570) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$512 vs −$410 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$50,872
Realized+$64,501
Unrealized+$13,610
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses239 / 192
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$3,646
Open positions40
Markets (closed)431 / 466
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$665
Trades / day40.7
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 431 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 66¢ 97¢ $6,739 $9,871 +$3,132 (+46%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 55¢ 90¢ $3,821 $6,335 +$2,514 (+66%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 58¢ 94¢ $2,149 $3,458 +$1,309 (+61%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 79¢ 90¢ $2,598 $2,986 +$389 (+15%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 94¢ 94¢ $2,807 $2,822 +$15 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 70¢ 99¢ $1,483 $2,121 +$638 (+43%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 83¢ 83¢ $2,085 $2,065 −$20 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 31¢ 99¢ $643 $2,053 +$1,410 (+219%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 54¢ 88¢ $1,239 $2,013 +$774 (+62%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 49¢ 99¢ $910 $1,837 +$927 (+102%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 63¢ 100¢ $967 $1,522 +$556 (+57%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 45¢ 55¢ $1,032 $1,268 +$236 (+23%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1,140 $1,148 +$8 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 60¢ 99¢ $683 $1,125 +$442 (+65%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1,036 $1,093 +$57 (+5%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 23¢ 99¢ $246 $1,046 +$800 (+325%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) T1 63¢ 62¢ $945 $938 −$8 (-1%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 59¢ 63¢ $836 $888 +$53 (+6%)
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? No 83¢ 92¢ $784 $863 +$79 (+10%)
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 48¢ 46¢ $742 $710 −$33 (-4%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $649 $645 −$5 (-1%)
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? Yes 55¢ 72¢ $459 $603 +$145 (+32%)
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 52¢ 32¢ $940 $590 −$349 (-37%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner T1 86¢ 90¢ $451 $469 +$18 (+4%)
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $434 $445 +$11 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $486 −$418 -86%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $256 +$1,446 +564%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $254 +$265 +104%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $144 +$86 +60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $241 +$59 +24%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 +$131 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,723 +$2,277 +48%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $76 +$24 +32%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $113 −$113 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $167 −$167 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $266 −$266 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $656 −$656 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $903 −$903 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $866 −$866 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,025 −$1,025 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 16 $487 −$487 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $136 −$136 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,915 −$1,915 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $560 +$440 +79%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $206 +$143 +70%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $197 +$253 +129%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $247 +$203 +82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $440 +$583 +132%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $127 +$73 +57%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $246 +$434 +176%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $206 +$252 +122%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,883 +$117 +6%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $152 +$58 +38%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $27 +$10 +38%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $587 +$413 +70%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $665 +$435 +65%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 14 $157 −$157 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $89 −$89 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $329 −$329 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $218 −$218 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $547 −$547 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 14 $321 −$321 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,065 −$1,065 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $8,159 −$8,159 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $86 +$9 +11%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,337 +$2,663 +114%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $2,496 +$1,102 +44%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $126 +$74 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $152 2m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 8¢ $1 9m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 8¢ $50 9m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 8¢ $8 9m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 8¢ $9 9m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $30 10m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $64 10m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $149 11m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $448 11m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 94¢ $196 17m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 33¢ $34 17m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 34¢ $34 18m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $111 30m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $173 35m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $2 35m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $132 37m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $19 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $25 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $22 1h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 63¢ $955 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 94¢ $110 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 94¢ $76 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 94¢ $76 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 94¢ $513 5h
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5h
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 94¢ $16 5h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 94¢ $38 6h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 78¢ $71 6h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 80¢ $120 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50,872.11 · official $53,471.41 · 3500 history records