Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:02:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6a0…3692 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% $0
politics 15% +$1
other 13% −$1
crypto 8% +$1
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.6% -11.8% 0% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 10 -1.7% -11.0% 10% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 -1.7% -11.0% 10% 0% -9.5%
all 35 -0.5% -10.0% 31% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage459d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 80¢ 80¢ $38 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $2 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $56 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $37 +$1 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $28 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -15%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 03 $2 $0 -13%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jun 12 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Eva Copa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $12 $0 +4%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Poilievre say "Trudeau" during Canadian Election Debate on April Apr 19 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 15 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 09 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $11 $0 +4%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 21 $12 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $38 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $42 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $42 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $41 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $41 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $12 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $2 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $10 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 59¢ $12 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 59¢ $26 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $37 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $27 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $28 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $41 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $41 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.37 · official $37.37 (match) · 96 history records