Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:08:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd6a0…8a8f crypto 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 712d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$150 (-6%) realized −$186 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate68%96W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$20
14 days−$59
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$178
other 40% +$10
sports 5% +$10
economics 4% +$5
politics 2% +$2
tech 0% −$2
world 0% −$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.2% -11.5% 67% 56% -18.3%
≤30d 16 -11.9% -20.3% 56% 50% -23.0%
≤90d 16 -11.9% -20.3% 56% 50% -23.0%
all 142 -5.5% -14.5% 68% 43% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 43% -17.9%
10% -22.7% 27% -25.7%
15% -30.2% 14% -32.9%
20% -37.0% 9% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

712d coverage
Net worth$526
Realized−$186
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses96 / 46
Open positions9
Markets (closed)142 / 151
History coverage712d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 81¢ $366 $402 +$36 (+10%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? No 86¢ 88¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? No 85¢ 84¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? No 66¢ 72¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 20 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $39 +$8 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $81 +$15 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $24 +$7 +28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11 −$8 -75%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 +$13 +158%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 2 Dec 02 $117 −$117 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $94,000 on November 28? Dec 02 $114 +$3 +3%
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 15 $95 +$40 +42%
Bolsonaro guilty? Sep 12 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Aug 26 $285 −$147 -52%
Will Solana reach $220 in August? Aug 24 $20 −$12 -60%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in August? Aug 24 $5 $0 -2%
Will Solana reach $250 in August? Aug 24 $1 $0 -19%
Will Solana reach $230 in August? Aug 24 $4 $0 -9%
Will Solana reach $210 in August? Aug 24 $25 +$8 +30%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in August? Aug 22 $70 +$22 +32%
Will Solana reach $195 in August? Aug 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Solana reach $200 in August? Aug 13 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Ethereum reach $4700 in August? Aug 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $117K in August? Aug 08 $10 +$2 +25%
Will Solana reach $175 in August? Aug 08 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in July? Aug 01 $20 +$2 +9%
GENIUS Act signed into law in 2025? Jul 19 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Solana reach $200 in July? Jul 18 $5 −$2 -36%
Solana ETF approved in 2025? Jul 02 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Trump Media invest in Bitcoin before July? Jun 30 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Solana reach $180 in June? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? Jun 02 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Solana reach $190 in May? May 22 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30? May 22 $11 +$4 +38%
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy by May 31? May 01 $2 $0 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 01 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 01 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? May 01 $85 +$25 +30%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in April? Apr 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Solana dip to $100 in April? Apr 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Solana dip to $110 in April? Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 02 $66 +$13 +20%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 02 $10 +$6 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $48 1h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 26h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $7 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $15 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $82 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $20 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 66¢ $4 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 85¢ $8 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $14 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 86¢ $18 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 51¢ $6 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $31 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 91¢ $17 8d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $20 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 8d
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 79¢ $20 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $525.59 · official $526.17 (match) · 431 history records