Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd69f…7d61 crypto 670 markets active 4d ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (134 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-1%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate72%481W / 189L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day134.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$43
14 days−$138
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$126
other 3% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (134 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 294 -5.1% -14.1% 74% 33% -13.3%
≤30d 670 -3.3% -12.5% 72% 37% -13.0%
≤90d 670 -3.3% -12.5% 72% 37% -13.0%
all 670 -3.3% -12.5% 72% 37% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover134.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 37% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 21% -21.4%
15% -28.5% 12% -29.0%
20% -35.5% 7% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses481 / 189
Open positions0
Markets (closed)670 / 670
History coverage10d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day134.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 670 Trades
no open positions (114 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$4 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1776 history records