Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:32:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D6 0xd69f…7dff other 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,509 (-1%) realized −$1,509 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate18%26W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$922per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$845now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$10
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$401
politics 38% −$39
sports 5% −$1,087
world 2% −$4
culture 2% −$3
crypto 2% +$6
economics 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 52 -2.0% -11.4% 6% 0% -11.1%
all 147 -3.4% -12.6% 18% 10% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 10% -10.5%
10% -21.0% 9% -19.1%
15% -28.6% 7% -26.9%
20% -35.6% 6% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,278) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$18 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$845
Realized−$1,509
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses26 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage168d
Avg bet$922
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $845 $845 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $1,017 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 26 $342 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $323 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $306 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,798 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,418 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,294 −$2 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1,111 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,445 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,574 −$3 -0%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $1,218 −$5 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $3,274 −$4 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,291 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,342 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,724 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,350 −$4 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,654 −$4 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $339 +$2 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 02 $612 +$1 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $607 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $708 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $3,301 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,014 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,063 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,699 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,520 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $3,753 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,559 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $820 +$4 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 30 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,355 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,277 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,409 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $2,361 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2,678 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,348 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $1,440 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $2,365 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $1,307 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $2,550 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $527 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $528 4h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $341 7h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $342 9h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $262 47h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $518 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $263 2d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $518 2d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $322 8d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $323 8d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $397 8d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $398 8d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $306 8d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $306 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $570 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $571 9d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $845 10d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,176 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,178 13d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,416 13d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,418 13d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,293 15d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,294 15d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,109 15d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,111 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,313 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,315 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,330 16d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,332 16d
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,212 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $845.29 · official $845.29 (match) · 461 history records