Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:42:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd69d…6bd3 crypto 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate85%94W / 17L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$689per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 54% +$278
crypto 26% −$184
other 13% +$55
world 4% +$24
sports 1% −$193
politics 1% −$11
tech 1% +$2
weather 0% $0
culture 0% +$18
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.9% -5.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 8 -9.6% -18.3% 88% 12% -18.6%
≤90d 26 -7.0% -15.8% 81% 12% -13.1%
all 111 -3.3% -12.5% 85% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 9% -9.5%
10% -20.9% 4% -18.2%
15% -28.5% 2% -26.1%
20% -35.5% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$32 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses94 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage246d
Avg bet$689
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $101 $101 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $175 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $180 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 14 $119 +$1 +1%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 28 $200 $0 +0%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $2 $0 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 27 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 18? May 23 $200 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 18 $1 $0 +48%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? May 17 $1 $0 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 17 $249 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 15 $224 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 11 $219 +$1 +1%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 05 $270 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 04 $209 +$1 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 27? Apr 27 $177 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 27 $218 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $200 +$1 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $470 +$2 +0%
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 16 $260 $0 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 14 $200 +$20 +10%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $196 −$1 -0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Apr 04 $122 −$122 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 02 $204 +$18 +9%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 20 $6,679 +$7 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 20 $349 +$2 +1%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $2 $0 +6%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 16 $202 +$18 +9%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 10? Mar 13 $110 $0 +0%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 06 $105 +$5 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Mar 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 27? Mar 02 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 23? Feb 27 $309 +$1 +0%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $100 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 23 $220 $0 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN Freecs (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 20 $180 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 17? Feb 20 $108 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 17 $308 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $320 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 12? Feb 15 $322 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Feb 12 $1 $0 +1%
Superform FDV above $200M one day after launch? Feb 12 $297 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 10? Feb 11 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 6? Feb 08 $309 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 5? Feb 06 $309 +$1 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 05 $27,655 +$238 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 39m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $97 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $130 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $45 46h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 100¢ $180 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $119 17d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 95¢ $100 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 28d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 89¢ $2 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $200 36d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Bilibili Gaming 67¢ $1 37d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $129 40d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? BUY Down 78¢ $1 40d
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $118 44d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 44d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 44d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 44d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 44d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 44d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $219 46d
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 100¢ $270 50d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $209 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.05 · official $101.05 (match) · 505 history records